This Month

Compass Card poised to
change transit in San Diego

More local juvenile arrestees test positive for drugs and alcohol

Crime mapping Web site is a resounding success
Report details regional demographic and economic trends

American Community Survey data set for release

Public involvement program
for Regional Transportation Plan

Meet the RideLink and
STAR 94.1 teams

Report details regional demographic and economic trends

As a region, we’re older and more diverse; slightly better off financially, growing at a much slower pace, and struggling more than ever to meet the demand for housing. This is the picture painted in the latest report released by SANDAG.

The SANDAG report, part of the agency’s periodic info series, validates that home builders have been unable to meet the demands of a growing population. San Diego Region Demographic and Economic Characteristics [PDF] also shows that this demand versus supply imbalance has contributed to the upward spiral of housing costs, more people deciding to live under one roof, and ever-daunting commutes from Riverside and Imperial Counties and Baja California.

Population
With 3,051,280 residents as of January 2005, the San Diego region is the third largest county in California — behind Los Angeles and Orange counties, respectively. Nonetheless, the area’s population has not been growing as rapidly as other counties in the state. Riverside was the fastest growing county between 2004 and 2005, at a rate of 3.8 percent (compared to 1.5 percent for San Diego County).

Between 2000 and 2005, San Diego County had an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent, the same rate of growth seen during the 1990s. This growth rate is about half as much as experienced in the 1970s and down substantially from growth rates in the 1980s. 

The region is now growing at a slightly slower pace than the state. Since 2000, San Diego County has grown by a total of 8.4 percent, slightly less than the statewide rate of 8.7 percent. Interestingly, the region’s growth over the last five years has been almost equally split between natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (number of people moving into the region minus those moving out). Just over half of the region’s growth can be attributed to natural increase between 2000 and 2005. This is a change from trends experienced throughout the 1990s when natural increase far surpassed net migration to the region.

The majority of our population resides in incorporated cities. With 1,305,736 inhabitants, the City of San Diego remains the largest city with nearly 43 percent of the region’s total population. Chula Vista is the second largest city with 217,243 residents. Just over 15 percent of the region’s population lives in the unincorporated areas.

In addition, six cities grew faster than the region between 2000 and 2005. San Marcos grew the fastest at a rate of 32.9 percent, followed by Chula Vista (25.4%, Carlsbad (21.5%), National City (17.5%), Coronado (11.9%), and Oceanside (8.7%). The high rates of growth in National City and Coronado are largely due to fluctuations in the military population in those cities.

Housing
Housing units in the region increased by just 6.6 percent between 2000 and 2005 to a total of 1,108,500. In general, cities with the highest rates of population increase also had the largest percent gain in housing units. However, a slight decrease in housing stock was seen in three cities from 2000 to 2005: Coronado, Del Mar, and National City. While some units have been demolished to make way for new development, this decline is probably the result of revised methods used to create the estimates.

Population growth continues to outpace the construction of housing units in the region. The largest disparity can be seen in the Central Major Statistical Area (MSA) where population grew by 4.9 percent between 2000 and 2005, in contrast to new home construction which grew by only 2.5 percent. (MSAs are groups of census tracts that divide the region in seven sub-areas.)

Gaps between population and housing construction can contribute to higher home prices and larger household sizes. The average household size (persons per household) in the San Diego region is now 2.77, up from 2.73 in 2000. Average household size increased in 17 of the region’s 19 jurisdictions. The largest average household size is in National City at 3.52 and the smallest is 2.12 in Del Mar.

For more information on demographic and economic trends in San Diego, including ethnicity, age, and household income, view the entire report.

Project Manager:
Karen Lamphere, kla@sandag.org, 619-699-6955