This Month
Construction on SR 52 gets green light
Regional growth forecast provides glimpse at our future
Vanpools offer solution to high gas prices
NCTD prepares to implement fare changes
SANDAG Service Bureau completes small business, education, transit projects
Robberies with firearms increased in 2005, but still below national average
Summer Cruisin' with MTS
Regional growth forecast provides glimpse at our future
SANDAG has developed the latest update of the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast — a fundamental component of the agency’s land use and transportation planning, and a critical element of the regional decision-making process.
The 2030 Regional Growth Forecast provides a glimpse of what the future holds for the county and its communities under existing plans and policies. It sheds light on what is working and what can be changed to create a brighter, more sustainable future. The forecast is updated every three to five years to ensure its relevance, and the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) and Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) are modified accordingly.
The updated 2030 Regional Growth Forecast, which looks at the period between 2005 and 2030, reveals a number of key trends:
Regional Growth —
The region is forecasted to grow through natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration by almost one million people, with 285,700 new homes and 456,200 new jobs added. Population and employment are projected to grow at roughly the same rate, while housing growth is at a slower pace, reflecting the relative lack of residential opportunities in current plans.
Interregional and binational commuting increase significantly —
In this forecast, 88,000 households are exported to Riverside, Orange and Imperial Counties, and Baja California. People will seek lower cost housing elsewhere but will continue to work within the region. This level of external commuting represents 24 percent of all housing demand associated with the region’s future job growth and associated demographic shifts. However, it is lower than the interregional number of 93,000 households in the last forecast. This indicates that the region is moving in a direction consistent with the RCP.
More housing built through redevelopment —
Regionally, 62 percent of the new housing units are forecasted to be built on vacant land, while 38 percent will be built on redeveloped land. In the previous forecast, only 25 percent of new housing was sited in redevelopment areas that were identified in current plans. This shift of residential development from vacant to redevelopment areas also is consistent with the RCP.
An imbalance between areas identified for future residential and employment growth —
During the forecasted period, the region is expected to fully develop its residential capacity. In 2030, however, there is still enough land designated for employment (17,000 acres) to locate over 228,000 jobs.
A significant aging of the population —
The population of adults 65 and up in the region will grow by 123 percent, which is almost four times faster than the overall population. The aging of our population has widespread implications including the fiscal health of social security, pension plans, and Medicare; the provision of transportation and other public services; and the anticipated rise of public safety concerns such as elder abuse.
SANDAG forecasts are highly respected for their accuracy. Analysis of previous forecasts has shown that population forecasts for the region have a scant 0.4 percent margin of error per year, or four percent over a ten year period.
Board members were presented the updated forecast at the May Board Policy Meeting. In July, the Board will be asked to consider the 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update for use in the 2007 RTP and in other studies. .
Project Manager
Ed Schafer, esc@sandag.org, 619-699-1967