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info: 2030 regional growth forecast update As part of its info series of bulletins, SANDAG recently released info: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update, which estimates that by the year 2030 the San Diego region will grow by approximately one
Although one million people represents a significant amount of growth, the region’s growth rate has actually slowed over the last decade and that pattern will continue. By the mid-2020s, we will be growing at a rate of less than one percent per year, largely due to a continuing decline in fertility rates and land available for residential development. Our ethnic composition also will continue to change. Table 2 presents the regional changes in population for seven ethnic groups. While the Hispanic and Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups will almost double in size over the 26 years, the number of non-Hispanic Whites is expected to decline slightly.
The region’s 19 jurisdictions also will change to accommodate the region’s one million new residents. Six jurisdictions are expected to grow at a faster rate than the regional average: the unincorporated area, Chula Vista, San Marcos, Carlsbad, Santee, and National City. The City of San Diego will absorb an additional 316,100 people. Additionally, all of the jurisdictions will see a higher percentage increase in population than housing. Over time, this imbalance will result in an increase in household size (from 2.77 to 2.87 per household), a decrease in vacancy rates, and an increase in the amount of interregional commuting. Compared to population growth, the growth rates for employment are slightly more balanced among jurisdictions. Nine of the 19 jurisdictions will see faster employment growth than the region as a whole. Chula Vista is expected to have the highest growth rate, with a 99 percent increase in jobs between 2004 and 2030, due to a relative abundance of vacant land planned for employment use. Additional Information about how the projected one million new residents will likely be distributed throughout the region is available in info: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update. The 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update represents the best assessment of the changes anticipated for the region and its communities based on the most current available information and well-proven computer models. SANDAG info bulletins present information produced as part of the SANDAG overall planning program. The series contains population, housing, employment, land use, transportation, criminal justice, and other data, as well as occasional reports on other subjects of general interest. Historical info bulletins are available on the SANDAG Web site at www.sandag.org/publications. Project Manager Beth Jarosz, Associate Research Analyst
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